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Listening to co-workers, friends, and various others, I decided that my education as a political scientist (I think that is an actual thing) does qualify me to make educated comments about what last night’s election means for our country. If you are reading this (all 4 of you) and thinking "Baylor sucks, he doesn't know anything" then I'll just say that I had to do some pretty serious historical election research as a student which I'm using to make some judgments here.

I'm going to come out and say that last night's election did signal a major shift in American politics, but probably not in the way that you think. I don't know if I'm the first to say it, but I think last night's election signals the final nail in the coffin of the 'Contract with America.'

Presidential elections are one thing, but the legislature can really tell us where the country's opinions lie. Looking at the congressional party map for the last 50 or 60 years reveals 2 distinct periods. Basically the Democrats controlled congress for 40 years between 1954 and 1994 although not both houses the entire time. The Republicans controlled congress by a thin majority from 1994 till the last midterm election in 2006. I believe they had even lost the Senate before that, but I didn't look it up.

This morning it now looks like the last 14+- years of Republicans in Congress may simply be a blip on the timeline between periods of Democratic control. So what happened in 1994? It was only the most unprecedented and surprising election in the history of our country. Republicans organized a grass roots effort to weed out corruption and rallied behind simple precepts like smaller government and lower taxes. This was also strengthened by an outpouring of voters who were motivated by social issues like abortion, prayer in schools, and gays in the military. There were also cases of corruption among the sitting Democrats that greatly helped shift public opinion towards - get ready "CHANGE!" The 1994 election also gave voters something special - "HOPE!" that government could be influenced and in short, fixed.

I went to Washington as a Congressional intern in 1997 while the spirit of the Contract with America was still very much alive. Conservatives were trying to forever change government and they largely failed. Newt eventually wound up looking like a crybaby who didn't get to sit at the front of the bus and Clinton became everyone's favorite dude in the Oval office. The class of 1994 became diluted and lost its vision and I hold them and those who followed them responsible for basically turning public opinion against Republicans and really F'ing up some major attention getting events, including the policies that led to the bailout and the mishandling of the war. Not to mention other things that may not have been their fault like 9\11 and the Katrina crisis.

The spirit of the 'Contract' is now gone completely, washed away by someone who also fills Americans with a desire for CHANGE and a newfound HOPE; washed away by more than a decade of Republicans who essentially were given enough rope to hang themselves and did.

I want to spend some time on something that Democrats want to overlook as an event that doesn't matter, but I think profoundly affected the politics of the last 8 years - The sexual promiscuity of one Mr. Bill Clinton.

No one knows of course, but I strongly believe that if Bill had not gotten some random BJs from one specific intern then Al Gore would have been president and the end of our current Republican era would have come much sooner. That specific choice by the president mattered to a lot of people and it certainly mattered to enough of the people who gave Bush his narrow victory in the 2000 election. I know that Dems have a very special affection for BC, but I think he's largely to blame for their lack of success before last night - twisted I know.

That gets me on to what the future of the Republican Party looks like from this point. Last night was the first election night in a long time when religious conservatives did not seem to have the same influence that they typically have had. I think that Republicans will gravitate towards this group of voters and reshape the Republican Party around them (again).

The idea of Rs being fiscally responsible, small government lawmakers is over for the time being and the only really strong thing that they are associated with is social conservativism which will most likely define the party in the 2010 mid-term election.

One thing I'm wondering is how Mike Huckabee would have done last night. Due to his status as a social conservative, I have to think he would have done better in some very key places like Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida. Since the economy became such a key issue in the election, I don't think incumbent Rs really had a chance unless they could distract voters away from that issue. Huckabee would have distracted people better than most potential candidates.

Thus ends my opinion about last night’s election.